As we navigate the recent market volatility, we want to provide some perspective on what’s happening and why this type of environment is something we always plan for. While headlines may suggest this time is different, history tells us that periods of uncertainty—whether driven by tariffs, inflation, elections, or other economic shifts—are a normal and expected part of investing.
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INVESTORS ARE SEARCHING FOR CLARITY - WILL THEY GET IT SOON?
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So far this year, markets have faced a complex mix of headwinds and shifting expectations. In the weeks following the election, investor enthusiasm was high on hopes of lower taxes, reduced regulation, and a more business-friendly environment. However, more recently, market sentiment has shifted, with concerns over tariffs and trade disputes taking center stage. The uncertainty surrounding how aggressively trade policies will be implemented, how businesses will respond, and the potential impacts on inflation and interest rates has been a key driver of recent volatility.
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While periods of volatility are normal and factored into the financial plans and portfolios we build, the politically charged environment we find ourselves in can make emotions run hot. As markets search for equilibrium, they often rise gradually over time—yet when uncertainty spikes, declines tend to be sharp and sudden. The past two years have shown how slow, steady gains can be quickly interrupted by short bursts of downside volatility—a pattern that has played out time and time again throughout history.
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While 80% of all years since 1980 have had positive performance, the average intra year price decline has averaged 14.1% over that same period
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MARKET HEADLINES AREN'T YOUR STORY
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While major indices like the Dow or S&P 500 dominate the headlines, they don’t necessarily reflect how your portfolio is positioned. Asset classes such as dividend stocks, bonds, and international stocks tend to perform differently from the broader market - which is precisely why they are included in a typical diversified portfolio. This year, diversified portfolios have benefited from strength across multiple asset classes and, as a result, have fared better than the common market indexes that the news often focuses on.
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Some notable market trends so far this year:
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- The S&P Dividend Aristocrat Index is up 4.6% for the year and only off marginally from all-time highs, reflecting investors preferences for stable cash flow generating companies during times of turmoil. Source: LSEG
- Bonds, as measured by the Barclays Bond Aggregate are up 2%, as longer term rates have fallen sending prices higher. Source: LSEG
- 9 of the 12 S&P 500 sectors, including Health Care and Consumer Staples, are positive since the beginning of the year. Source: LSEG
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History shows that leadership in the market shifts over time, and today’s dominant stocks won’t always be the primary drivers of returns. Our investment approach carefully reflects this view and is why we remain focused on maintaining diversification in your portfolio even when it is tempting to chase the hot stock or sector.
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WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOU?
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We are all human, and as humans, it’s natural to feel the urge to chase returns when markets are rising and to question everything when headlines turn negative. But volatility—while uncomfortable—is something we expect and account for in every financial plan and investment strategy we build.
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We don’t dismiss short-term risks, nor do we believe in reacting emotionally to every market movement. Instead, we focus on structuring portfolios and financial plans that are designed to endure periods such as this, making tweaks along the way as opportunities present themselves. Staying disciplined, maintaining diversification, ensuring appropriate liquidity, and following a strategy tailored to your needs—one that is built for the long run—remain the best ways to navigate uncertain times.
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